Prof. Ali Termos with coauthors has just published a new OA article "Agent-based simulation of West Asian urban dynamics: Impact of refugees" in Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation (JASSS).
The article explains the rapid international migration of significant populations from Western Asia, Europe and other regions. The motivation of this work is to develop an agent-based model (ABM) to capture the existence of such migrant and refugee flows, and to explore the effects of these flows on urban dynamics. Advances in agent-based modelling have led to theoretically-grounded spatial agent models of urban dynamics, capturing the dynamics of population, property prices, and regeneration. In this article the authors leverage such an extant agent-based model founded on the rent-gap theory, as a lens to study the effect of sizeable refugee migration upon a capital city in West Asia. In order to calibrate and validate the simulation model the authors construct indices for housing prices and other factors. Results from the model, implemented in NetLogo, show the impact of migration shock on the housing market, and identify the relative efficacy of housing intervention policies. The work progresses towards a tool for policy makers asking what-if questions about the urban environment in the context of migration.